The Asteroid That Briefly Had a 3% Chance of Hitting Earth
In early 2025, the chance that a newly found asteroid would hit Earth in 2032 climbed above 3%, the highest ever recorded for an object its size.
What was reported
On 27 December 2024, a telescope of the ATLAS survey in Río Hurtado, Chile, discovered an asteroid now called 2024 YR4, thought to be about 50 to 60 metres across, large enough to destroy a city. Early calculations of its orbit showed a small chance it could hit Earth in December 2032.
As more observations came in during January and February 2025, the chance rose, reaching about 3%, the highest ever for an asteroid that size. The possible impact zone stretched across the Pacific, South America, Africa and South Asia.
Explanations offered
As expected by astronomers, more observations narrowed down its path, and by late February 2025, the chance of an Earth impact had fallen to almost zero. A small chance remains that it could hit the Moon. It was a real-world test of planetary defence systems.
- When
- Discovered December 2024
- Where
- Río Hurtado, Coquimbo, Chile
- Witnesses
- Astronomers and the world's media
- Status
- No danger to Earth
Famous cases are real, widely reported events. Each file sets out what witnesses said and the explanations that have been offered, without taking a side.
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